Week 2 · Final
20 – 70
Vegas Line
Georgia -40.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
UGA -37.0
UGA 99.7% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: WKU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +13.8 pts toward UGA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- UGA -6.0
- UGA: 6 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +1.5 pts.
Western Kentucky — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia ranks #20 nationally allowing 99.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #6 run defense.
2Contain Nate Frazier
Georgia's top producer this season: 72 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Western Kentucky has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Western Kentucky converts 35.3% of third downs (#99 nationally) versus Georgia's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Western Kentucky is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia sits at +0.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Western Kentucky on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Western Kentucky ranks #136 nationally allowing 323.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #60 pass defense.
2Contain Ajay Allen
Western Kentucky's top producer this season: 102 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Georgia has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Georgia converts 66.7% of third downs (#9 nationally) versus Western Kentucky's 35.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Georgia is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Western Kentucky sits at -1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Georgia on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Rodney Tisdale Jr.WKU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 203
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.1
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 102.6
Gunner StocktonUGA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 202
- Completion %
- 93.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.6
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 261.7
Leading Rusher
Ajay AllenWKU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 102
- Carries
- 21
- Yards / Carry
- 4.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 23
Nate FrazierUGA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 72
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 18.0
- Rushing TD
- 3
- Long
- 48
Primary Receiver
Cameron FlowersWKU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 60
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 8.6
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 21
Jeremy BellUGA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 54.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 54
Defensive Leader
Jaylen LewisWKU · DB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Raylen WilsonUGA · LB
- Tackles
- 3
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UGA by 37.0
Baseline UGA -37.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
UGA QB
UGA Top 25 level · WKU Below average
WKU passing vs UGA coverage
| 203.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 99.0 |
| 60.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.8 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 11.5% |
| 0.140 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.100 |
WKU rushing vs UGA run defense
| 164.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 10.0 |
| 3.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.3 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 45.5% |
| 23.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.195 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.688 |
UGA passing vs WKU coverage
| 163.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 388.0 |
| 10.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 75.8% |
| 56.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.446 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.614 |
Efficiency & situational
| 35.3% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 367.0 | Total yards / game | 660.0 |
| 486.0 | Yards allowed / game | 109.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.