Week 1 · Final
0 – 47
Vegas Line
Kennesaw State -22.5
Total 50.5
Model Projection
KENN -19.0
KENN 94.9% win · O/U 50.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: WGA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- KENN -4.2
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
West Georgia — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kennesaw State ranks #29 nationally allowing 111.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #22 run defense.
2Contain Latrelle Murrell
Kennesaw State's top producer this season: 88 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing West Georgia has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
West Georgia is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kennesaw State sits at +0.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts West Georgia on the winning side of an even split.
Kennesaw State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Kennesaw State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; West Georgia sits at +0.
2Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Kennesaw State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Rickie CollinsKENN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 156
- Completion %
- 78.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 149.6
Leading Rusher
Latrelle MurrellKENN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 88
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 9.8
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 45
Primary Receiver
Javon RogersKENN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 27.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 38
Defensive Leader
Cameron MillerKENN · DB
- Tackles
- 4
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
KENN by 19.0
Baseline KENN -19.0
Simulated Total
50.5
Baseline 50.5
Unit Edge
KENN QB
KENN Below average · WGA Below average
WGA passing vs KENN coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 111.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.3 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 7.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.143 |
WGA rushing vs KENN run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 49.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.424 |
KENN passing vs WGA coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 211.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.169 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 508.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 160.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.