Week 2 · Final
7 – 52
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ARST -7.5
ARST 76.6% win · O/U 56.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ARST -3.7
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
West Georgia — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Arkansas State ranks #137 nationally allowing 335.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #70 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
West Georgia is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arkansas State sits at -2.
Arkansas State — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Arkansas State is -2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; West Georgia sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Arkansas State averages 434.0 total yards per game (#58 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ARST by 7.7
Baseline ARST -7.5
Simulated Total
56.9
Baseline 56.9
Unit Edge
ARST QB
ARST FBS average · WGA Below average
WGA passing vs ARST coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 188.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 12.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 80.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 1.159 |
WGA rushing vs ARST run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 335.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 7.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.8% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.378 |
ARST passing vs WGA coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 325.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.25:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.215 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 434.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 523.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.