Week 1 · Final
10 – 24
Vegas Line
Washington -23.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
WASH -20.0
WASH 95.6% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: WSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.5 pts toward WASH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- WASH -3.4
- WASH: 4 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 75%, incoming portal talent −0.9 pts.
- WSU: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Kirby Moore — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
Washington State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Washington ranks #60 nationally allowing 100.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #49 pass defense.
2Contain Demond Williams Jr.
Washington's top producer this season: 61 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Washington State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Washington State converts 0.0% of third downs (#137 nationally) versus Washington's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Washington State is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Washington sits at +3.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Washington State on the winning side of an even split.
Washington — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Washington State ranks #109 nationally allowing 268.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #82 run defense.
2Contain Caden Pinnick
Washington State's top producer this season: 61 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Washington has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Washington converts 33.3% of third downs (#107 nationally) versus Washington State's 0.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Washington is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Washington State sits at -3.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Washington on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Caden PinnickWSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 142
- Completion %
- 64.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.7
- TD : INT
- 0 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 95.7
Demond Williams Jr.WASH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 268
- Completion %
- 68.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.7
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 142.3
Leading Rusher
Caden PinnickWSU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 61
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 4.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 25
Demond Williams Jr.WASH · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 61
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 8.7
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 21
Primary Receiver
Daniel BloodWSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 11.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 32
Chris LawsonWASH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 87
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 21.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 35
Defensive Leader
Keith BrownWSU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Jacob ManuWASH · LB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WASH by 20.0
Baseline WASH -20.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
WASH QB
WASH FBS average · WSU Below average
WSU passing vs WASH coverage
| 142.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 142.0 |
| 64.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.7 |
| 5.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 12.0% |
| -0.084 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.084 |
WSU rushing vs WASH run defense
| 100.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 100.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 2.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 31.0% |
| 31.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| -0.023 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.023 |
WASH passing vs WSU coverage
| 268.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 268.0 |
| 7.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.6% |
| 68.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.262 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.262 |
Efficiency & situational
| 0.0% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 242.0 | Total yards / game | 402.0 |
| 402.0 | Yards allowed / game | 242.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.