Week 2 · Final
7 – 34
Vegas Line
Kansas State -19.5
Total 48.5
Model Projection
KSU -16.0
KSU 92.1% win · O/U 48.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: WSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.1 pts toward KSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- KSU -1.3
- KSU: 2 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Collin Klein — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent −1.9 pts.
- WSU: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Kirby Moore — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
Washington State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Kansas State ranks #54 nationally allowing 92.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #1 pass defense.
2Contain Rodney Fields Jr.
Kansas State's top producer this season: 101 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Washington State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Washington State converts 0.0% of third downs (#137 nationally) versus Kansas State's 81.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Washington State is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kansas State sits at +0.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 48.5. Anything above 25 points puts Washington State on the winning side of an even split.
Kansas State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Washington State ranks #109 nationally allowing 268.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #82 run defense.
2Contain Caden Pinnick
Washington State's top producer this season: 61 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Kansas State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Kansas State converts 81.8% of third downs (#3 nationally) versus Washington State's 0.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Kansas State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Washington State sits at -3.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 48.5. Anything above 25 points puts Kansas State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Caden PinnickWSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 142
- Completion %
- 64.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.7
- TD : INT
- 0 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 95.7
Avery JohnsonKSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 199
- Completion %
- 71.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 198.2
Leading Rusher
Caden PinnickWSU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 61
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 4.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 25
Rodney Fields Jr.KSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 101
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 7.2
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 26
Primary Receiver
Daniel BloodWSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 11.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 32
Joe JacksonKSU · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 24.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 43
Defensive Leader
Keith BrownWSU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Gabe PowersKSU · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
KSU by 16.0
Baseline KSU -16.0
Simulated Total
48.5
Baseline 48.5
Unit Edge
KSU QB
KSU Above average · WSU Below average
WSU passing vs KSU coverage
| 142.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 30.0 |
| 64.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 1.6 |
| 5.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 36.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| -0.084 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.302 |
WSU rushing vs KSU run defense
| 100.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 92.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.4 |
| 2.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 35.3% |
| 31.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 10 |
| -0.023 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.004 |
KSU passing vs WSU coverage
| 268.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 247.0 |
| 7.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 74.1% |
| 68.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.1 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.262 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.766 |
Efficiency & situational
| 0.0% | Third-down conversion | 81.8% |
| 242.0 | Total yards / game | 559.0 |
| 402.0 | Yards allowed / game | 122.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.