Vegas Line
Wake Forest -3
Total 49.5
Model Projection
PUR -0.5
PUR 51.9% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: PUR
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.3 pts toward PUR on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- WAKE -2.5
- PUR: 5 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent +1.7 pts.
- WAKE: 0 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent −4.3 pts.
Wake Forest — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Purdue ranks #88 nationally allowing 218.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #35 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Wake Forest converts 46.7% of third downs (#57 nationally) versus Purdue's 54.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Wake Forest is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Purdue sits at +1.
4Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Wake Forest on the winning side of an even split.
Purdue — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Wake Forest ranks #93 nationally allowing 149.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #56 pass defense.
2Contain Ty Clark III
Wake Forest's top producer this season: 105 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Purdue has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Purdue converts 54.5% of third downs (#36 nationally) versus Wake Forest's 46.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Purdue is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wake Forest sits at +1.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Purdue on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Giovanni LopezWAKE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 350
- Completion %
- 65.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.4
Leading Rusher
Ty Clark IIIWAKE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 105
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 15.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 57
Primary Receiver
Carlos HernandezWAKE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 165
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 33.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 78
Defensive Leader
Frank CusanoWAKE · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
PUR by 0.5
Baseline PUR -0.5
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
PUR QB
PUR Above average · WAKE FBS average
WAKE passing vs PUR coverage
| 356.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 218.0 |
| 62.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.9 |
| 10.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 54.5% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.6% |
| 0.716 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.106 |
WAKE rushing vs PUR run defense
| 203.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 66.0 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.8 |
| 3.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 37.5% |
| 12.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.335 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.035 |
PUR passing vs WAKE coverage
| 156.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 346.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 79.4% |
| 84.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.2 |
| 6.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.067 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.854 |
Efficiency & situational
| 46.7% | Third-down conversion | 54.5% |
| 559.0 | Total yards / game | 523.0 |
| 305.0 | Yards allowed / game | 284.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.