Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
JMU -15.0
JMU 90.8% win · O/U 50.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- JMU -10.9
- JMU: 1 portal additions / 4 departures, first year under Billy Napier — 2021–2025 archive weighted 54%, incoming portal talent −1.7 pts.
Wagner — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
James Madison ranks #93 nationally allowing 230.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #53 run defense.
2Contain JC Evans
James Madison's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Wagner has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Wagner is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; James Madison sits at +0.
James Madison — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
James Madison is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wagner sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
James Madison averages 291.0 total yards per game (#114 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
JC EvansJMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 61
- Completion %
- 77.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 171.4
Leading Rusher
JC EvansJMU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 7.7
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 23
Primary Receiver
Noah GreviousJMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 9.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Defensive Leader
Jayon HarveyJMU · S
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
JMU by 14.9
Baseline JMU -15.0
Simulated Total
50.8
Baseline 50.8
Unit Edge
JMU QB
JMU Below average · WAG Below average
WAG passing vs JMU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 230.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.244 |
WAG rushing vs JMU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 91.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 13.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.116 |
JMU passing vs WAG coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 118.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.6 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.392 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 291.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 321.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.