Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CAL -16.5
CAL 92.9% win · O/U 55.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- CAL -12.7
- CAL: 10 portal additions / 6 departures, first year under Tosh Lupoi — 2021–2025 archive weighted 19%, incoming portal talent +2.7 pts.
Wagner — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
California ranks #130 nationally allowing 277.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #67 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Wagner is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; California sits at -2.
California — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
California is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wagner sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
California averages 410.0 total yards per game (#66 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CAL by 16.7
Baseline CAL -16.5
Simulated Total
55.9
Baseline 55.9
Unit Edge
CAL QB
CAL FBS average · WAG Below average
WAG passing vs CAL coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 184.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.1% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.026 |
WAG rushing vs CAL run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 277.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 8.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 3.4% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.746 |
CAL passing vs WAG coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 291.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 55.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.305 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 52.4% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 410.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 461.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.