Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MD -2.0
MD 58.0% win · O/U 47.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.6 pts toward MD on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- VT -2.5
- MD: 1 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −1.3 pts.
- VT: 7 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under James Franklin — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent +4.9 pts.
Virginia Tech — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Maryland ranks #9 nationally allowing 75.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #7 run defense.
2Contain DeJuan Williams
Maryland's top producer this season: 116 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Virginia Tech has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Virginia Tech converts 37.5% of third downs (#94 nationally) versus Maryland's 57.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Virginia Tech is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Maryland sits at +3.
5Move the ball efficiently
Virginia Tech averages 619.0 total yards per game (#15 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Maryland — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Virginia Tech ranks #14 nationally allowing 87.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #2 run defense.
2Contain Jeffrey Overton Jr.
Virginia Tech's top producer this season: 104 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Maryland has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Maryland converts 57.1% of third downs (#27 nationally) versus Virginia Tech's 37.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Maryland is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Virginia Tech sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Maryland averages 646.0 total yards per game (#8 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Ethan GrunkemeyerVT · QB
- Passing Yds
- 224
- Completion %
- 85.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 212.1
Malik WashingtonMD · QB
- Passing Yds
- 186
- Completion %
- 61.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 122.3
Leading Rusher
Jeffrey Overton Jr.VT · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 104
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 11.6
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 50
DeJuan WilliamsMD · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 116
- Carries
- 3
- Yards / Carry
- 38.7
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 94
Primary Receiver
Que'Sean BrownVT · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 109
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 18.2
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingMD · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 9.5
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
George BallanceVT · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Trey ReddickMD · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MD by 2.1
Baseline MD -2.0
Simulated Total
47.9
Baseline 47.9
Unit Edge
VT QB
MD FBS average · VT Above average
VT passing vs MD coverage
| 351.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 75.0 |
| 84.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.9 |
| 11.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 52.6% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 26.3% |
| 0.558 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.038 |
VT rushing vs MD run defense
| 268.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 10.0 |
| 6.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.3 |
| 4.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 50.0% |
| 6.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 1.143 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.625 |
MD passing vs VT coverage
| 87.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 281.0 |
| 6.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.8% |
| 38.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.4 |
| 38.5% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| -0.141 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.280 |
Efficiency & situational
| 37.5% | Third-down conversion | 57.1% |
| 619.0 | Total yards / game | 646.0 |
| 83.0 | Yards allowed / game | 85.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.