Week 2 · Final
31 – 26
Vegas Line
Texas State -1.5
Total 66.5
Model Projection
UTSA -1.5
UTSA 55.4% win · O/U 66.5
Value Edge
2.9 pt edge: UTSA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.5 pts toward UTSA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TXST -0.6
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
UTSA — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Texas State ranks #130 nationally allowing 360.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #99 run defense.
2Contain Jaylen Jenkins
Texas State's top producer this season: 34 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UTSA has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UTSA converts 33.3% of third downs (#105 nationally) versus Texas State's 57.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
UTSA is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas State sits at -2.
5Clear 34 points
The market total for this game is 66.5. Anything above 34 points puts UTSA on the winning side of an even split.
Texas State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UTSA ranks #110 nationally allowing 177.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #101 pass defense.
2Contain Will Henderson III
UTSA's top producer this season: 99 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Texas State converts 57.1% of third downs (#29 nationally) versus UTSA's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Texas State is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; UTSA sits at +2.
5Clear 34 points
The market total for this game is 66.5. Anything above 34 points puts Texas State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Owen McCownUTSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 275
- Completion %
- 81.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 203.7
Brad JacksonTXST · QB
- Passing Yds
- 150
- Completion %
- 65.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.5
- TD : INT
- 0 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 111.3
Leading Rusher
Will Henderson IIIUTSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 99
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 11.0
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Jaylen JenkinsTXST · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 34
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 5.7
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
DJ AllenUTSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 116
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 38.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 62
Tucker CusanoTXST · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 19.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 41
Defensive Leader
Joel RogersUTSA · S
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Terrence Cooks IITXST · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UTSA by 1.4
Baseline UTSA -1.5
Simulated Total
66.5
Baseline 66.5
Unit Edge
UTSA QB
TXST FBS average · UTSA FBS average
UTSA passing vs TXST coverage
| 275.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 360.0 |
| 75.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.6 |
| 9.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 76.5% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.9% |
| 0.462 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.991 |
UTSA rushing vs TXST run defense
| 250.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 156.0 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.3 |
| 3.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 37.5% |
| 9.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.336 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.023 |
TXST passing vs UTSA coverage
| 245.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 188.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 69.0% |
| 55.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.5 |
| 2.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| -0.172 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.429 |
Efficiency & situational
| 33.3% | Third-down conversion | 57.1% |
| 525.0 | Total yards / game | 349.0 |
| 422.0 | Yards allowed / game | 516.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.