Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
TEX -15.0
TEX 91.2% win · O/U 55.2
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.4 pts toward TEX on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TEX -2.8
- TEX: 9 portal additions / 13 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −0.6 pts.
UTSA — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Texas ranks #101 nationally allowing 161.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #71 pass defense.
2Contain Daylan Smothers
Texas's top producer this season: 70 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UTSA has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UTSA converts 33.3% of third downs (#105 nationally) versus Texas's 73.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
UTSA is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas sits at +2.
5Move the ball efficiently
UTSA averages 525.0 total yards per game (#31 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Texas — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UTSA ranks #110 nationally allowing 177.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #101 pass defense.
2Contain Will Henderson III
UTSA's top producer this season: 99 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Texas converts 73.3% of third downs (#4 nationally) versus UTSA's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Texas is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; UTSA sits at +2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Texas averages 516.0 total yards per game (#36 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Owen McCownUTSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 275
- Completion %
- 81.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 203.7
Arch ManningTEX · QB
- Passing Yds
- 305
- Completion %
- 74.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.3
- TD : INT
- 4 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 4.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 210.4
Leading Rusher
Will Henderson IIIUTSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 99
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 11.0
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Daylan SmothersTEX · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 70
- Carries
- 10
- Yards / Carry
- 7.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 45
Primary Receiver
DJ AllenUTSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 116
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 38.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 62
Ryan WingoTEX · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 121
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 17.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 45
Defensive Leader
Joel RogersUTSA · S
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Jelani McDonaldTEX · DB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TEX by 15.2
Baseline TEX -15.0
Simulated Total
55.2
Baseline 55.2
Unit Edge
TEX QB
TEX Top 25 level · UTSA FBS average
UTSA passing vs TEX coverage
| 275.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 188.0 |
| 75.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 9.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 69.0% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.9% |
| 0.462 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.429 |
UTSA rushing vs TEX run defense
| 250.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 161.0 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.9 |
| 3.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.3% |
| 9.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.336 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.120 |
TEX passing vs UTSA coverage
| 245.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 360.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 55.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.6 |
| 2.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| -0.172 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.991 |
Efficiency & situational
| 33.3% | Third-down conversion | 73.3% |
| 525.0 | Total yards / game | 516.0 |
| 422.0 | Yards allowed / game | 349.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.