Vegas Line
Oklahoma -40.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
OU -37.0
OU 99.7% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UTEP
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +9.1 pts toward OU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- OU -8.1
- OU: 7 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
UTEP — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Oklahoma ranks #71 nationally allowing 112.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #13 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
UTEP converts 15.4% of third downs (#130 nationally) versus Oklahoma's 54.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
UTEP is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oklahoma sits at +1.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts UTEP on the winning side of an even split.
Oklahoma — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UTEP ranks #107 nationally allowing 170.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #95 pass defense.
2Contain Raymond Moore III
UTEP's top producer this season: 49 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Oklahoma has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Oklahoma converts 54.5% of third downs (#35 nationally) versus UTEP's 15.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Oklahoma is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; UTEP sits at -1.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Oklahoma on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
EJ ColsonUTEP · QB
- Passing Yds
- 52
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.3
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 86.4
Leading Rusher
Raymond Moore IIIUTEP · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 49
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 5.4
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 51
Primary Receiver
Tavorus JonesUTEP · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 22
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 7.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Defensive Leader
Donavan HowardUTEP · S
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
OU by 37.0
Baseline OU -37.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
OU QB
OU Top 25 level · UTEP Below average
UTEP passing vs OU coverage
| 86.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 86.0 |
| 55.6% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.8 |
| 4.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 55.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 22.2% |
| -0.015 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.015 |
UTEP rushing vs OU run defense
| 112.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 112.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.9 |
| 1.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.0% |
| 30.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 10 |
| -0.078 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.078 |
OU passing vs UTEP coverage
| 231.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 231.0 |
| 12.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.2% |
| 63.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 12.2 |
| 5.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 1.046 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.046 |
Efficiency & situational
| 15.4% | Third-down conversion | 54.5% |
| 198.0 | Total yards / game | 401.0 |
| 401.0 | Yards allowed / game | 198.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.