Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MICH -20.5
MICH 95.9% win · O/U 47.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +9.1 pts toward MICH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MICH -7.4
- MICH: 7 portal additions / 8 departures, first year under Kyle Whittingham — 2021–2025 archive weighted 22%, incoming portal talent −0.7 pts.
UTEP — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Michigan ranks #79 nationally allowing 132.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #15 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
UTEP converts 15.4% of third downs (#130 nationally) versus Michigan's 30.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
UTEP is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Michigan sits at -3.
4Move the ball efficiently
UTEP averages 198.0 total yards per game (#128 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UTEP ranks #107 nationally allowing 170.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #95 pass defense.
2Contain Raymond Moore III
UTEP's top producer this season: 49 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Michigan has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Michigan converts 30.0% of third downs (#112 nationally) versus UTEP's 15.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Michigan is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; UTEP sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Michigan averages 276.0 total yards per game (#120 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
EJ ColsonUTEP · QB
- Passing Yds
- 52
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.3
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 86.4
Leading Rusher
Raymond Moore IIIUTEP · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 49
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 5.4
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 51
Primary Receiver
Tavorus JonesUTEP · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 22
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 7.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Defensive Leader
Donavan HowardUTEP · S
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MICH by 20.5
Baseline MICH -20.5
Simulated Total
47.6
Baseline 47.6
Unit Edge
MICH QB
MICH Above average · UTEP Below average
UTEP passing vs MICH coverage
| 86.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 89.0 |
| 55.6% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.2 |
| 4.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 71.4% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.5% |
| -0.015 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.167 |
UTEP rushing vs MICH run defense
| 112.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 132.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.9 |
| 1.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 18.2% |
| 30.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.078 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.039 |
MICH passing vs UTEP coverage
| 231.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 170.0 |
| 12.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 52.2% |
| 63.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.4 |
| 5.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 1.046 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
Efficiency & situational
| 15.4% | Third-down conversion | 30.0% |
| 198.0 | Total yards / game | 276.0 |
| 401.0 | Yards allowed / game | 221.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | -3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.