Week 2 · Final
14 – 16
Vegas Line
Washington -26.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
WASH -23.0
WASH 97.2% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: USU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.5 pts toward WASH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- WASH -5.1
- WASH: 4 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 75%, incoming portal talent −0.9 pts.
Utah State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Washington ranks #60 nationally allowing 100.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #49 pass defense.
2Contain Demond Williams Jr.
Washington's top producer this season: 61 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Utah State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Utah State converts 60.0% of third downs (#22 nationally) versus Washington's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Utah State is -4 in turnover margin (0 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Washington sits at +3.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Utah State on the winning side of an even split.
Washington — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Utah State ranks #53 nationally allowing 152.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #51 run defense.
2Contain Javen Jacobs
Utah State's top producer this season: 80 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Washington has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Washington converts 33.3% of third downs (#107 nationally) versus Utah State's 60.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Washington is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Utah State sits at -4.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Washington on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
McCae HillsteadUSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 178
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.9
- TD : INT
- 2 : 3
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.67:1
- Passer Rating
- 101.8
Demond Williams Jr.WASH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 268
- Completion %
- 68.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.7
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 142.3
Leading Rusher
Javen JacobsUSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 80
- Carries
- 20
- Yards / Carry
- 4.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Demond Williams Jr.WASH · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 61
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 8.7
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 21
Primary Receiver
Eli WoodUSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 90
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 15.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 21
Chris LawsonWASH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 87
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 21.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 35
Defensive Leader
Harrison TaggartUSU · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Jacob ManuWASH · LB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WASH by 23.0
Baseline WASH -23.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
WASH QB
WASH FBS average · USU Below average
USU passing vs WASH coverage
| 245.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 142.0 |
| 45.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.7 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.0% |
| 0.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 12.0% |
| 0.119 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.084 |
USU rushing vs WASH run defense
| 162.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 100.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 31.0% |
| 16.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.049 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.023 |
WASH passing vs USU coverage
| 152.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 268.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.6% |
| 54.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.7 |
| 6.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.130 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.262 |
Efficiency & situational
| 60.0% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 407.0 | Total yards / game | 402.0 |
| 241.0 | Yards allowed / game | 242.0 |
| -4 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.