Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UTAH -13.5
UTAH 88.9% win · O/U 60.5
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +7.2 pts toward UTAH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- UTAH -2.3
- UTAH: 3 portal additions / 6 departures, first year under Morgan Scalley — 2021–2025 archive weighted 41%, incoming portal talent −2.7 pts.
Utah State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Utah ranks #66 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #36 pass defense.
2Contain LaMarcus Bell
Utah's top producer this season: 87 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Utah State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Utah State converts 60.0% of third downs (#22 nationally) versus Utah's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Utah State is -4 in turnover margin (0 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Utah sits at +2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Utah State averages 407.0 total yards per game (#67 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Utah — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Utah State ranks #53 nationally allowing 152.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #51 run defense.
2Contain Javen Jacobs
Utah State's top producer this season: 80 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Utah has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Utah converts 66.7% of third downs (#13 nationally) versus Utah State's 60.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Utah is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Utah State sits at -4.
5Move the ball efficiently
Utah averages 633.0 total yards per game (#13 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
McCae HillsteadUSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 178
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.9
- TD : INT
- 2 : 3
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.67:1
- Passer Rating
- 101.8
Devon DampierUTAH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 176
- Completion %
- 72.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.8
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 209.4
Leading Rusher
Javen JacobsUSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 80
- Carries
- 20
- Yards / Carry
- 4.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
LaMarcus BellUTAH · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 87
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 12.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 34
Primary Receiver
Eli WoodUSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 90
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 15.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 21
Braden PeganUTAH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 81
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 20.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 31
Defensive Leader
Harrison TaggartUSU · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Jackson BenneeUTAH · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UTAH by 13.5
Baseline UTAH -13.5
Simulated Total
60.5
Baseline 60.5
Unit Edge
UTAH QB
UTAH Above average · USU Below average
USU passing vs UTAH coverage
| 245.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 45.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 36.7% |
| 0.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.3% |
| 0.119 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.009 |
USU rushing vs UTAH run defense
| 162.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 106.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.4 |
| 3.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.7% |
| 16.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.049 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.312 |
UTAH passing vs USU coverage
| 152.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 269.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.4% |
| 54.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.3 |
| 6.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.130 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.703 |
Efficiency & situational
| 60.0% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 407.0 | Total yards / game | 633.0 |
| 241.0 | Yards allowed / game | 225.0 |
| -4 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.