Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
WVU -12.0
WVU 86.2% win · O/U 52.2
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- WVU -7.9
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
UT Martin — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
West Virginia ranks #132 nationally allowing 373.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #27 run defense.
2Contain Cam Cook
West Virginia's top producer this season: 142 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UT Martin has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
UT Martin is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; West Virginia sits at +1.
West Virginia — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
West Virginia is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; UT Martin sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
West Virginia averages 413.0 total yards per game (#64 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Michael Hawkins Jr.WVU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 132
- Completion %
- 78.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.4
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 181.3
Leading Rusher
Cam CookWVU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 142
- Carries
- 30
- Yards / Carry
- 4.7
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 72
Primary Receiver
Armoni WeaverWVU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 49.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 49
Defensive Leader
Kamari WilsonWVU · S
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WVU by 11.9
Baseline WVU -12.0
Simulated Total
52.2
Baseline 52.2
Unit Edge
WVU QB
WVU FBS average · UTM Below average
UTM passing vs WVU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 373.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 56.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.457 |
UTM rushing vs WVU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 52.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.9 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 32.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.214 |
WVU passing vs UTM coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 132.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 78.6% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.636 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 413.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 425.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.