Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MEM -15.0
MEM 91.2% win · O/U 55.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- MEM -11.2
- MEM: 1 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Charles Huff — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
UT Martin — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Memphis ranks #119 nationally allowing 308.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #85 run defense.
2Contain Jaylin Carter
Memphis's top producer this season: 280 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UT Martin has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
UT Martin is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Memphis sits at +1.
Memphis — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Memphis is +1 in turnover margin (4 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; UT Martin sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Memphis averages 470.5 total yards per game (#53 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Marcus StokesMEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 411
- Completion %
- 65.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.0
- TD : INT
- 4 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 172.5
Leading Rusher
Jaylin CarterMEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 280
- Carries
- 34
- Yards / Carry
- 8.2
- Rushing TD
- 5
- Long
- 74
Primary Receiver
Braylon BurnsideMEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 37.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 48
Defensive Leader
Zach RuffinMEM · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 13
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MEM by 15.2
Baseline MEM -15.0
Simulated Total
55.3
Baseline 55.3
Unit Edge
MEM QB
MEM FBS average · UTM Below average
UTM passing vs MEM coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 308.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 67.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.2% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.133 |
UTM rushing vs MEM run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 139.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 16 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.200 |
MEM passing vs UTM coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 205.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.9% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.0 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.684 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 470.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 447.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.