Week 1 · Final
21 – 6
Vegas Line
UNLV -3
Total 55.5
Model Projection
UNLV -2.0
UNLV 58.4% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
0.8 pt edge: HAW
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.9 pts toward UNLV on the 2026 3-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 3 games · 75%
- Historical baseline
- 25%
- Baseline margin
- UNLV -3.8
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
UNLV — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Hawai'i ranks #119 nationally allowing 210.5 rush yards per game — softer than their #84 pass defense.
2Contain Devon Rice
Hawai'i's top producer this season: 108 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UNLV has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UNLV converts 33.3% of third downs (#104 nationally) versus Hawai'i's 43.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
UNLV is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 2 recorded games; Hawai'i sits at -2.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts UNLV on the winning side of an even split.
Hawai'i — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UNLV ranks #100 nationally allowing 156.5 rush yards per game — softer than their #77 pass defense.
2Contain Jai'Den Thomas
UNLV's top producer this season: 187 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Hawai'i has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Hawai'i converts 43.6% of third downs (#69 nationally) versus UNLV's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Hawai'i is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; UNLV sits at +2.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Hawai'i on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jackson ArnoldUNLV · QB
- Passing Yds
- 407
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.4
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 134.2
Micah AlejadoHAW · QB
- Passing Yds
- 448
- Completion %
- 52.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.9
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 98.1
Leading Rusher
Jai'Den ThomasUNLV · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 187
- Carries
- 32
- Yards / Carry
- 5.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 50
Devon RiceHAW · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 108
- Carries
- 26
- Yards / Carry
- 4.2
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 16
Primary Receiver
Kayden McGeeUNLV · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 92
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 23.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 44
Kainoa CarvalhoHAW · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 98
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 16.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 32
Defensive Leader
Jake PopeUNLV · S
- Tackles
- 19
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Kona MooreHAW · DB
- Tackles
- 24
- Solo
- 16
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UNLV by 2.2
Baseline UNLV -2.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
UNLV QB
HAW Below average · UNLV FBS average
UNLV passing vs HAW coverage
| 203.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 213.0 |
| 58.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.2 |
| 7.3 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 1.9% |
| 0.011 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.224 |
UNLV rushing vs HAW run defense
| 208.5 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 210.5 |
| 5.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.3 |
| 3.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.5% |
| 14.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.265 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.276 |
HAW passing vs UNLV coverage
| 199.5 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 226.0 |
| 5.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 50.5% |
| 46.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.8 |
| 8.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.106 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.046 |
Efficiency & situational
| 33.3% | Third-down conversion | 43.6% |
| 412.0 | Total yards / game | 308.0 |
| 356.0 | Yards allowed / game | 423.5 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.