Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CONN -1.0
CONN 53.1% win · O/U 53.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
The 2026 2-game sample matches the historical baseline (50% current-season weight).
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CONN -3.3
- USM: 0 portal additions / 2 departures, first year under Blake Anderson — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
- CONN: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Jason Candle — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
UConn — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Southern Miss ranks #64 nationally allowing 104.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #34 pass defense.
2Contain Steven Robinson
Southern Miss's top producer this season: 123 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UConn has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UConn converts 50.0% of third downs (#53 nationally) versus Southern Miss's 41.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
UConn is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Southern Miss sits at +4.
5Move the ball efficiently
UConn averages 671.0 total yards per game (#4 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Southern Miss — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
UConn ranks #51 nationally allowing 145.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #34 run defense.
2Contain Kalieb Osborne
UConn's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Southern Miss has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Southern Miss converts 41.7% of third downs (#76 nationally) versus UConn's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Southern Miss is +4 in turnover margin (5 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; UConn sits at -2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Southern Miss averages 543.0 total yards per game (#25 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kalieb OsborneCONN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 265
- Completion %
- 73.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 176.4
Ethan HamptonUSM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 180
- Completion %
- 56.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 127.9
Leading Rusher
Kalieb OsborneCONN · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 90
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 11.3
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 30
Steven RobinsonUSM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 123
- Carries
- 23
- Yards / Carry
- 5.3
- Rushing TD
- 3
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Javon BrownCONN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 92
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 15.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 29
Mario Sanders IIUSM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 94
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 15.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 38
Defensive Leader
Jalil MartinCONN · DB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Mathis HaygoodUSM · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 0
- Sacks
- 0.5
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CONN by 0.8
Baseline CONN -1.0
Simulated Total
53.6
Baseline 53.6
Unit Edge
CONN QB
USM FBS average · CONN FBS average
CONN passing vs USM coverage
| 370.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 75.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.2 |
| 11.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 65.2% |
| 1.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.3% |
| 0.597 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.495 |
CONN rushing vs USM run defense
| 301.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 104.0 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.0 |
| 3.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 35.3% |
| 16.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.425 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.386 |
USM passing vs CONN coverage
| 145.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 226.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 55.6% |
| 50.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 4.8% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| -0.332 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.414 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 41.7% |
| 671.0 | Total yards / game | 543.0 |
| 209.0 | Yards allowed / game | 223.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +4 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.