Vegas Line
UCLA -2.5
Total 53.5
Model Projection
CAL -1.0
CAL 53.8% win · O/U 53.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: CAL
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.1 pts toward UCLA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CAL -1.6
- CAL: 10 portal additions / 6 departures, first year under Tosh Lupoi — 2021–2025 archive weighted 19%, incoming portal talent +2.7 pts.
- UCLA: 6 portal additions / 2 departures, first year under Bob Chesney — 2021–2025 archive weighted 45%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
UCLA — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
California ranks #130 nationally allowing 277.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #67 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
UCLA converts 54.5% of third downs (#37 nationally) versus California's 52.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
UCLA is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; California sits at -2.
4Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts UCLA on the winning side of an even split.
California — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
UCLA ranks #115 nationally allowing 291.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #74 run defense.
2Contain Anthony Woods
UCLA's top producer this season: 118 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing California has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
California converts 52.4% of third downs (#42 nationally) versus UCLA's 54.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
California is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; UCLA sits at +2.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts California on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Nico IamaleavaUCLA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 184
- Completion %
- 63.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.4
- TD : INT
- 0 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 124.8
Leading Rusher
Anthony WoodsUCLA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 118
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 14.8
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 53
Primary Receiver
Mikey MatthewsUCLA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 88
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 22.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 43
Defensive Leader
Samuel OmosighoUCLA · LB
- Tackles
- 14
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CAL by 1.0
Baseline CAL -1.0
Simulated Total
53.5
Baseline 53.5
Unit Edge
UCLA QB
CAL FBS average · UCLA FBS average
UCLA passing vs CAL coverage
| 184.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 184.0 |
| 63.6% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.4 |
| 8.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.1% |
| 0.026 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.026 |
UCLA rushing vs CAL run defense
| 277.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 277.0 |
| 8.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 8.7 |
| 4.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 3.4% |
| 3.4% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.746 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.746 |
CAL passing vs UCLA coverage
| 291.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 291.0 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 55.3% |
| 55.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 4.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.305 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.305 |
Efficiency & situational
| 54.5% | Third-down conversion | 52.4% |
| 461.0 | Total yards / game | 410.0 |
| 410.0 | Yards allowed / game | 461.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.