Vegas Line
SMU -24.5
Total 58.5
Model Projection
SMU -21.0
SMU 96.2% win · O/U 58.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UCD
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- SMU -15.7
- SMU: 4 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
UC Davis — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
SMU ranks #114 nationally allowing 199.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #40 pass defense.
2Contain Kendrick Raphael
SMU's top producer this season: 75 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UC Davis has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
UC Davis is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; SMU sits at -3.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts UC Davis on the winning side of an even split.
SMU — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
SMU is -3 in turnover margin (1 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; UC Davis sits at +0.
2Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts SMU on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kevin JenningsSMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 430
- Completion %
- 72.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.50:1
- Passer Rating
- 188.9
Leading Rusher
Kendrick RaphaelSMU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 75
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 6.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 23
Primary Receiver
Yannick SmithSMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 107
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 21.4
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 79
Defensive Leader
Aakil WashingtonSMU · DE
- Tackles
- 1
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SMU by 21.0
Baseline SMU -21.0
Simulated Total
58.5
Baseline 58.5
Unit Edge
SMU QB
SMU Above average · UCD Below average
UCD passing vs SMU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 125.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 52.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.246 |
UCD rushing vs SMU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 199.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.2% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.162 |
SMU passing vs UCD coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 430.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 72.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.50:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.585 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 57.1% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 585.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 324.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.