Vegas Line
Buffalo -18.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
BUF -15.0
BUF 91.0% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UALB
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- BUF -8.4
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
UAlbany — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Buffalo ranks #80 nationally allowing 204.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #40 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
UAlbany is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Buffalo sits at +0.
3Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts UAlbany on the winning side of an even split.
Buffalo — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Buffalo is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; UAlbany sits at +0.
2Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Buffalo on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BUF by 15.0
Baseline BUF -15.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
BUF QB
BUF Below average · UALB Below average
UALB passing vs BUF coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 204.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 46.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 7.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.096 |
UALB rushing vs BUF run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 72.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.3 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 28.6% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.211 |
BUF passing vs UALB coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 189.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 55.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.0 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.197 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 47.6% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 340.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 276.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.