Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UL -6.0
UL 71.9% win · O/U 54.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.6 pts toward UL on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- UL -1.5
- UL: 0 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 97%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
- UAB: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Alex Mortensen — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.5 pts.
UAB — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Louisiana ranks #52 nationally allowing 149.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #30 run defense.
2Contain D'Wayne' Winfield
Louisiana's top producer this season: 84 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing UAB has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UAB converts 52.6% of third downs (#41 nationally) versus Louisiana's 37.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
UAB is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Louisiana sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
UAB averages 413.0 total yards per game (#62 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Louisiana — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UAB ranks #95 nationally allowing 150.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #66 pass defense.
2Contain Roderick Robinson II
UAB's top producer this season: 59 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Louisiana has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Louisiana converts 37.5% of third downs (#92 nationally) versus UAB's 52.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Louisiana is +1 in turnover margin (4 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; UAB sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Louisiana averages 474.0 total yards per game (#51 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Ryder BurtonUAB · QB
- Passing Yds
- 219
- Completion %
- 58.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.1
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 121.6
D'Wayne' WinfieldUL · QB
- Passing Yds
- 189
- Completion %
- 71.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.0
- TD : INT
- 0 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 128.0
Leading Rusher
Roderick Robinson IIUAB · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 59
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 4.2
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 13
D'Wayne' WinfieldUL · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 84
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 10.5
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
C.J. SmithUAB · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 28.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 42
Caden JensenUL · TE
- Receiving Yds
- 77
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 15.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 25
Defensive Leader
Muaaz ByardUAB · LB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 0
Brent Gordon Jr.UL · CB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UL by 6.1
Baseline UL -6.0
Simulated Total
54.6
Baseline 54.6
Unit Edge
UL QB
UL FBS average · UAB Below average
UAB passing vs UL coverage
| 219.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 149.0 |
| 58.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.8 |
| 7.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 58.1% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.7% |
| -0.078 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.214 |
UAB rushing vs UL run defense
| 194.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 56.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.9 |
| 3.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 27.3% |
| 7.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.282 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.178 |
UL passing vs UAB coverage
| 182.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 231.0 |
| 10.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.4% |
| 76.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.6 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.885 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.231 |
Efficiency & situational
| 52.6% | Third-down conversion | 37.5% |
| 413.0 | Total yards / game | 474.0 |
| 332.0 | Yards allowed / game | 205.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.