Week 1 · Final
23 – 42
Vegas Line
Illinois -25.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
ILL -22.0
ILL 96.7% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UAB
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.4 pts toward ILL on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ILL -2.5
- ILL: 2 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.2 pts.
- UAB: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Alex Mortensen — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.5 pts.
UAB — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Illinois ranks #113 nationally allowing 194.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #89 pass defense.
2Contain Ca'Lil Valentine
Illinois's top producer this season: 88 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UAB has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UAB converts 52.6% of third downs (#41 nationally) versus Illinois's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
UAB is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Illinois sits at +1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts UAB on the winning side of an even split.
Illinois — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UAB ranks #95 nationally allowing 150.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #66 pass defense.
2Contain Roderick Robinson II
UAB's top producer this season: 59 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Illinois has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Illinois converts 50.0% of third downs (#47 nationally) versus UAB's 52.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Illinois is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; UAB sits at -1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Illinois on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Ryder BurtonUAB · QB
- Passing Yds
- 219
- Completion %
- 58.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.1
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 121.6
Katin HouserILL · QB
- Passing Yds
- 182
- Completion %
- 76.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.7
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 224.6
Leading Rusher
Roderick Robinson IIUAB · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 59
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 4.2
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 13
Ca'Lil ValentineILL · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 88
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 8.0
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Primary Receiver
C.J. SmithUAB · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 28.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 42
Collin DixonILL · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 70
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 11.7
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 18
Defensive Leader
Muaaz ByardUAB · LB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 0
Matthew BaileyILL · DB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ILL by 22.0
Baseline ILL -22.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
ILL QB
ILL Above average · UAB Below average
UAB passing vs ILL coverage
| 219.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 219.0 |
| 58.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.1 |
| 7.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 58.1% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.2% |
| -0.078 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.078 |
UAB rushing vs ILL run defense
| 194.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 194.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 3.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 7.5% |
| 7.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.282 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.282 |
ILL passing vs UAB coverage
| 182.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 182.0 |
| 10.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 76.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.885 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.885 |
Efficiency & situational
| 52.6% | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 413.0 | Total yards / game | 332.0 |
| 332.0 | Yards allowed / game | 413.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.