Week 2 · Final
23 – 17
Vegas Line
Tulsa -14
Total 51.5
Model Projection
TLSA -10.5
TLSA 83.4% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: SHSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.8 pts toward TLSA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TLSA -1.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Tulsa — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Sam Houston ranks #109 nationally allowing 177.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #62 pass defense.
2Contain Alton McCaskill
Sam Houston's top producer this season: 51 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tulsa has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Tulsa converts 9.1% of third downs (#134 nationally) versus Sam Houston's 42.9%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Tulsa is +3 in turnover margin (4 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Sam Houston sits at -1.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Tulsa on the winning side of an even split.
Sam Houston — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Tulsa ranks #99 nationally allowing 241.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #77 run defense.
2Contain Damari Alston
Tulsa's top producer this season: 73 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Sam Houston has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Sam Houston converts 42.9% of third downs (#73 nationally) versus Tulsa's 9.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Sam Houston is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tulsa sits at +3.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Sam Houston on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Baylor HayesTLSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 227
- Completion %
- 70.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 155.7
Landyn LockeSHSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 335
- Completion %
- 65.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 3 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 3.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 143.6
Leading Rusher
Damari AlstonTLSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 73
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 4.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 29
Alton McCaskillSHSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 51
- Carries
- 13
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 24
Primary Receiver
Oran Singleton Jr.TLSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 99
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 24.8
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 56
Grady O'NeillSHSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 86
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 12.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Chris Thompson Jr.TLSA · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Railyn AdamsSHSU · S
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TLSA by 10.5
Baseline TLSA -10.5
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
TLSA QB
SHSU Below average · TLSA FBS average
TLSA passing vs SHSU coverage
| 227.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 165.0 |
| 70.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.9 |
| 9.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 16.7% |
| 0.443 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.290 |
TLSA rushing vs SHSU run defense
| 134.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 177.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 2.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 28.2% |
| 15.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.038 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.025 |
SHSU passing vs TLSA coverage
| 241.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 335.0 |
| 4.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.2% |
| 59.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.3 |
| 4.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.151 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
Efficiency & situational
| 9.1% | Third-down conversion | 42.9% |
| 361.0 | Total yards / game | 373.0 |
| 368.0 | Yards allowed / game | 342.0 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.