Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
KSU -7.5
KSU 75.5% win · O/U 44.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.8 pts toward KSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- KSU -0.5
- KSU: 2 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Collin Klein — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent −1.9 pts.
- TULN: 1 portal additions / 3 departures, first year under Will Hall — 2021–2025 archive weighted 57%, incoming portal talent −1.3 pts.
Tulane — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Kansas State ranks #54 nationally allowing 92.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #1 pass defense.
2Contain Rodney Fields Jr.
Kansas State's top producer this season: 101 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tulane has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Tulane converts 21.4% of third downs (#123 nationally) versus Kansas State's 81.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Tulane is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kansas State sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Tulane averages 258.0 total yards per game (#124 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Kansas State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Tulane ranks #125 nationally allowing 250.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #43 pass defense.
2Contain Johnnie Daniels
Tulane's top producer this season: 31 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Kansas State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Kansas State converts 81.8% of third downs (#3 nationally) versus Tulane's 21.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Kansas State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tulane sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Kansas State averages 559.0 total yards per game (#21 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kadin SemonzaTULN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 140
- Completion %
- 52.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.7
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 108.4
Avery JohnsonKSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 199
- Completion %
- 71.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 198.2
Leading Rusher
Johnnie DanielsTULN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 31
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 7
Rodney Fields Jr.KSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 101
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 7.2
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 26
Primary Receiver
Destyn HillTULN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 13.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 39
Joe JacksonKSU · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 24.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 43
Defensive Leader
Kevin AdamsTULN · S
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Gabe PowersKSU · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
KSU by 7.3
Baseline KSU -7.5
Simulated Total
44.8
Baseline 44.8
Unit Edge
KSU QB
KSU Above average · TULN FBS average
TULN passing vs KSU coverage
| 204.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 30.0 |
| 56.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 1.6 |
| 6.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 36.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| 0.113 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.302 |
TULN rushing vs KSU run defense
| 54.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 92.0 |
| 2.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.4 |
| 3.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 35.3% |
| 13.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 10 |
| -0.240 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.004 |
KSU passing vs TULN coverage
| 131.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 247.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 74.1% |
| 46.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.1 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| -0.171 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.766 |
Efficiency & situational
| 21.4% | Third-down conversion | 81.8% |
| 258.0 | Total yards / game | 559.0 |
| 381.0 | Yards allowed / game | 122.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.