Vegas Line
Duke -9.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
DUKE -6.0
DUKE 71.6% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: TULN
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.1 pts toward DUKE on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TULN -2.1
- DUKE: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.8 pts.
- TULN: 1 portal additions / 3 departures, first year under Will Hall — 2021–2025 archive weighted 57%, incoming portal talent −1.3 pts.
Tulane — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Duke ranks #81 nationally allowing 204.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #29 run defense.
2Contain Nate Sheppard
Duke's top producer this season: 227 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tulane has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Tulane converts 21.4% of third downs (#123 nationally) versus Duke's 44.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Tulane is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Duke sits at +0.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Tulane on the winning side of an even split.
Duke — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Tulane ranks #125 nationally allowing 250.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #43 pass defense.
2Contain Johnnie Daniels
Tulane's top producer this season: 31 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Duke has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Duke converts 44.4% of third downs (#64 nationally) versus Tulane's 21.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Duke is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tulane sits at +0.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Duke on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kadin SemonzaTULN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 140
- Completion %
- 52.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.7
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 108.4
Walker EgetDUKE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 131
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.0
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 92.3
Leading Rusher
Johnnie DanielsTULN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 31
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 7
Nate SheppardDUKE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 227
- Carries
- 35
- Yards / Carry
- 6.5
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 47
Primary Receiver
Destyn HillTULN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 13.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 39
Jonah BurtonDUKE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 12.7
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
Kevin AdamsTULN · S
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Nick Morris Jr.DUKE · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
DUKE by 6.0
Baseline DUKE -6.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
TULN QB
DUKE Below average · TULN FBS average
TULN passing vs DUKE coverage
| 204.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 204.0 |
| 56.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.8 |
| 6.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 56.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.0% |
| 0.113 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.113 |
TULN rushing vs DUKE run defense
| 54.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 54.0 |
| 2.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.1 |
| 3.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 13.0% |
| 13.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.240 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.240 |
DUKE passing vs TULN coverage
| 131.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 131.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 46.4% |
| 46.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| -0.171 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.171 |
Efficiency & situational
| 21.4% | Third-down conversion | 44.4% |
| 258.0 | Total yards / game | 381.0 |
| 381.0 | Yards allowed / game | 258.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.