Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
MIZ -14.0
MIZ 89.3% win · O/U 51.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.9 pts toward MIZ on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MIZ -2.9
- MIZ: 11 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 46%, incoming portal talent +2.5 pts.
Troy — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Missouri ranks #50 nationally allowing 89.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #27 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Troy converts 40.0% of third downs (#85 nationally) versus Missouri's 60.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Troy is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Missouri sits at -1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Troy averages 342.0 total yards per game (#101 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Missouri — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Troy ranks #124 nationally allowing 335.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #13 run defense.
2Contain Gavin Griffin
Troy's top producer this season: 81 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Missouri has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Missouri converts 60.0% of third downs (#21 nationally) versus Troy's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Missouri is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Troy sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Missouri averages 562.0 total yards per game (#19 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Will CrowderTROY · QB
- Passing Yds
- 165
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 149.0
Leading Rusher
Gavin GriffinTROY · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 81
- Carries
- 16
- Yards / Carry
- 5.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
TK KeyesTROY · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 24.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 28
Defensive Leader
Doug NelsonTROY · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MIZ by 13.8
Baseline MIZ -14.0
Simulated Total
51.9
Baseline 51.9
Unit Edge
MIZ QB
MIZ Above average · TROY Below average
TROY passing vs MIZ coverage
| 165.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 109.0 |
| 50.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.5 |
| 6.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 45.8% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.2% |
| 0.290 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.421 |
TROY rushing vs MIZ run defense
| 177.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 89.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.1 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.8% |
| 28.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.025 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.061 |
MIZ passing vs TROY coverage
| 335.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 357.0 |
| 7.3 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 78.8% |
| 65.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.8 |
| 8.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.310 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.928 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 60.0% |
| 342.0 | Total yards / game | 562.0 |
| 373.0 | Yards allowed / game | 198.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.