Vegas Line
Navy -31.5
Total 50.5
Model Projection
NAVY -28.0
NAVY 98.7% win · O/U 50.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: TOW
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- NAVY -10.1
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Towson — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Navy ranks #83 nationally allowing 207.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #14 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Towson is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Navy sits at +0.
3Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Towson on the winning side of an even split.
Navy — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Navy is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Towson sits at +0.
2Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Navy on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NAVY by 28.0
Baseline NAVY -28.0
Simulated Total
50.5
Baseline 50.5
Unit Edge
NAVY QB
NAVY Below average · TOW Below average
TOW passing vs NAVY coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 207.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 73.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.8% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.492 |
TOW rushing vs NAVY run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 39.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.9 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 18.8% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.150 |
NAVY passing vs TOW coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 21.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 50.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 3.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.375 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 58.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 527.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 246.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.