Week 1 · Final
43 – 41
Vegas Line
Charlotte -20.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
CLT -17.0
CLT 93.2% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: CIT
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- CLT -2.1
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
The Citadel — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Charlotte ranks #129 nationally allowing 268.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #44 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
The Citadel is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Charlotte sits at -2.
3Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts The Citadel on the winning side of an even split.
Charlotte — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Charlotte is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; The Citadel sits at +0.
2Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Charlotte on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CLT by 17.0
Baseline CLT -17.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
CLT QB
CLT FBS average · CIT Below average
CIT passing vs CLT coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 132.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.2 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 69.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.4% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.378 |
CIT rushing vs CLT run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 268.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 18.8% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.377 |
CLT passing vs CIT coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 322.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.50:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.255 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 64.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 538.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 400.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.