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Texas State logo

Away · #110

Texas State

0-2 · Pac-12 · 7 pts

Week 1 · Final

7 – 59

Texas logo

Home · #2

Texas

2-0 · SEC · 59 pts

Sat, Sep 5, 1:30 PM MT DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium ESPN

Vegas Line

Texas -29.5

Total 60.5

Model Projection

TEX -26.0

TEX 98.2% win · O/U 60.5

Value Edge

3.5 pt edge: TXST

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +12.9 pts toward TEX on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
TEX -2.2
  • TEX: 9 portal additions / 13 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −0.6 pts.
Texas State logo

Texas State — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Texas ranks #101 nationally allowing 161.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #71 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain Daylan Smothers

    Texas's top producer this season: 70 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas State has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Texas State converts 57.1% of third downs (#29 nationally) versus Texas's 73.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Texas State is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas sits at +2.

  5. 5Clear 31 points

    The market total for this game is 60.5. Anything above 31 points puts Texas State on the winning side of an even split.

Texas logo

Texas — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Texas State ranks #130 nationally allowing 360.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #99 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Jaylen Jenkins

    Texas State's top producer this season: 34 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Texas converts 73.3% of third downs (#4 nationally) versus Texas State's 57.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Texas is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas State sits at -2.

  5. 5Clear 31 points

    The market total for this game is 60.5. Anything above 31 points puts Texas on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Brad JacksonTXST · QB

Passing Yds
150
Completion %
65.2%
Yards / Attempt
6.5
TD : INT
0 : 1
TD/INT Ratio
0.00:1
Passer Rating
111.3

Arch ManningTEX · QB

Passing Yds
305
Completion %
74.1%
Yards / Attempt
11.3
TD : INT
4 : 1
TD/INT Ratio
4.00:1
Passer Rating
210.4

Leading Rusher

Jaylen JenkinsTXST · RB

Rushing Yds
34
Carries
6
Yards / Carry
5.7
Rushing TD
0
Long
22

Daylan SmothersTEX · RB

Rushing Yds
70
Carries
10
Yards / Carry
7.0
Rushing TD
0
Long
45

Primary Receiver

Tucker CusanoTXST · WR

Receiving Yds
58
Receptions
3
Yards / Catch
19.3
Receiving TD
0
Long
41

Ryan WingoTEX · WR

Receiving Yds
121
Receptions
7
Yards / Catch
17.3
Receiving TD
1
Long
45

Defensive Leader

Terrence Cooks IITXST · LB

Tackles
8
Solo
3
Sacks
0.0
TFL
1.0
INT
0

Jelani McDonaldTEX · DB

Tackles
8
Solo
7
Sacks
0.0
TFL
1.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

TEX by 26.0

Baseline TEX -26.0

Simulated Total

60.5

Baseline 60.5

Unit Edge

TEX QB

TEX Top 25 level · TXST FBS average

Open the full simulator

TXST passing vs TEX coverage

188.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G188.0
69.0%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed6.5
6.5Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed69.0%
0.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate6.9%
0.429EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass0.429

TXST rushing vs TEX run defense

161.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G161.0
3.9Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed3.9
2.8Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate26.3%
26.3%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss8
-0.120EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.120

TEX passing vs TXST coverage

360.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG360.0
10.6Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %76.5%
76.5%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt10.6
2.9%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio4.00:1
0.991Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.991

Efficiency & situational

57.1%Third-down conversion73.3%
349.0Total yards / game516.0
516.0Yards allowed / game349.0
-2Turnover margin+2

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.