Week 2 · Final
10 – 51
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UTEP -10.0
UTEP 81.9% win · O/U 50.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- UTEP -5.8
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Texas Southern — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UTEP ranks #107 nationally allowing 170.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #95 pass defense.
2Contain Raymond Moore III
UTEP's top producer this season: 49 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Texas Southern has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Texas Southern is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; UTEP sits at -1.
UTEP — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
UTEP is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas Southern sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
UTEP averages 198.0 total yards per game (#128 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
EJ ColsonUTEP · QB
- Passing Yds
- 52
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 4.3
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 86.4
Leading Rusher
Raymond Moore IIIUTEP · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 49
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 5.4
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 51
Primary Receiver
Tavorus JonesUTEP · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 22
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 7.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Defensive Leader
Donavan HowardUTEP · S
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UTEP by 9.8
Baseline UTEP -10.0
Simulated Total
50.9
Baseline 50.9
Unit Edge
UTEP QB
UTEP Below average · TXSO Below average
TXSO passing vs UTEP coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 231.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 12.2 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 1.046 |
TXSO rushing vs UTEP run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 170.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.112 |
UTEP passing vs TXSO coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 86.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 55.6% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.015 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 15.4% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 198.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 401.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.