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Tennessee official team mark

Away · #10

Tennessee

7-2 · SEC · 0 pts

Week 11 · Scheduled

VS

Texas A&M official team mark

Home · #23

Texas A&M

4-5 · SEC · 0 pts

Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM MT Kyle Field ESPN

Vegas Line

TENN -2.5

Total 43.5

Model Projection

TENN -1.0

TENN 54.6% win · O/U 43.5

Value Edge

1.3 pt edge: TA&M

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +4.9 pts toward TENN on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Current reality
2026 sample
9 games · 90%
Historical baseline
10%
Baseline margin
TA&M -1.7
  • TA&M: 8 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +4.3 pts.
  • TENN: 5 portal additions / 8 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent −2.9 pts.
Tennessee official team mark

Tennessee — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Texas A&M ranks #12 nationally allowing 37.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #3 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain Rueben Owens

    Texas A&M's top producer this season: 77 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tennessee has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Tennessee converts 45.5% of third downs (#63 nationally) versus Texas A&M's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Tennessee is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas A&M sits at +2.

  5. 5Clear 22 points

    The market total for this game is 43.5. Anything above 22 points puts Tennessee on the winning side of an even split.

Texas A&M official team mark

Texas A&M — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Tennessee ranks #111 nationally allowing 178.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #5 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain DeSean Bishop

    Tennessee's top producer this season: 97 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas A&M has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Texas A&M converts 50.0% of third downs (#52 nationally) versus Tennessee's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Texas A&M is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tennessee sits at -2.

  5. 5Clear 22 points

    The market total for this game is 43.5. Anything above 22 points puts Texas A&M on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Faizon BrandonTENN · QB

Passing Yds
226
Completion %
76.5%
Yards / Attempt
13.3
TD : INT
3 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
246.4

Marcel ReedTA&M · QB

Passing Yds
233
Completion %
70.0%
Yards / Attempt
7.8
TD : INT
2 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
157.2

Leading Rusher

DeSean BishopTENN · RB

Rushing Yds
97
Carries
14
Yards / Carry
6.9
Rushing TD
1
Long
20

Rueben OwensTA&M · RB

Rushing Yds
77
Carries
17
Yards / Carry
4.5
Rushing TD
0
Long
15

Primary Receiver

Mike MatthewsTENN · WR

Receiving Yds
132
Receptions
4
Yards / Catch
33.0
Receiving TD
2
Long
57

Isaiah HortonTA&M · WR

Receiving Yds
76
Receptions
4
Yards / Catch
19.0
Receiving TD
1
Long
36

Defensive Leader

Amare CampbellTENN · LB

Tackles
6
Solo
4
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Noah MikhailTA&M · LB

Tackles
7
Solo
2
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

TENN by 1.2

Baseline TENN -1.0

Simulated Total

43.5

Baseline 43.5

Unit Edge

TA&M QB

TA&M Above average · TENN Above average

Open the full simulator

TENN passing vs TA&M coverage

309.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G30.0
77.8%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed1.8
11.4Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed47.1%
4.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate5.9%
0.632EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass-0.197

TENN rushing vs TA&M run defense

329.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G37.0
7.0Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed1.6
3.8Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate25.0%
10.0%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss6
0.427EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.375

TA&M passing vs TENN coverage

43.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG269.0
2.0Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %65.8%
50.0%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt7.1
27.3%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio3.00:1
-0.550Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.450

Efficiency & situational

45.5%Third-down conversion50.0%
638.0Total yards / game505.0
221.0Yards allowed / game67.0
-2Turnover margin+2

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.