Vegas Line
Tennessee -12.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
TENN -9.0
TENN 80.0% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: GT
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.5 pts toward TENN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TENN -3.6
- GT: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent +0.2 pts.
- TENN: 5 portal additions / 8 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent −2.9 pts.
Tennessee — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Georgia Tech ranks #112 nationally allowing 183.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #38 pass defense.
2Contain Justice Haynes
Georgia Tech's top producer this season: 64 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tennessee has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Tennessee converts 45.5% of third downs (#63 nationally) versus Georgia Tech's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Tennessee is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia Tech sits at -1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Tennessee on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia Tech — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Tennessee ranks #111 nationally allowing 178.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #5 pass defense.
2Contain DeSean Bishop
Tennessee's top producer this season: 97 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Georgia Tech has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Georgia Tech converts 38.5% of third downs (#88 nationally) versus Tennessee's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Georgia Tech is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tennessee sits at -2.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Georgia Tech on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Faizon BrandonTENN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 226
- Completion %
- 76.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 13.3
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 246.4
Alberto MendozaGT · QB
- Passing Yds
- 237
- Completion %
- 73.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.3
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 160.5
Leading Rusher
DeSean BishopTENN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 97
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 6.9
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 20
Justice HaynesGT · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 64
- Carries
- 19
- Yards / Carry
- 3.4
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Primary Receiver
Mike MatthewsTENN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 132
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 33.0
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 57
Jordan AllenGT · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 113
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 14.1
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 30
Defensive Leader
Amare CampbellTENN · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Kyle EffordGT · LB
- Tackles
- 13
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TENN by 9.0
Baseline TENN -9.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
TENN QB
GT FBS average · TENN Above average
TENN passing vs GT coverage
| 309.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 124.0 |
| 77.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.6 |
| 11.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.9% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.7% |
| 0.632 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.071 |
TENN rushing vs GT run defense
| 329.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 183.0 |
| 7.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.7 |
| 3.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 10.9% |
| 10.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.427 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.017 |
GT passing vs TENN coverage
| 43.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 237.0 |
| 2.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.8% |
| 50.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 27.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| -0.550 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.428 |
Efficiency & situational
| 45.5% | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 638.0 | Total yards / game | 288.0 |
| 221.0 | Yards allowed / game | 307.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.