Vegas Line
Georgia -49.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
UGA -46.0
UGA 99.9% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: TNST
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- UGA -17.7
- UGA: 6 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +1.5 pts.
Tennessee State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia ranks #20 nationally allowing 99.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #6 run defense.
2Contain Nate Frazier
Georgia's top producer this season: 72 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tennessee State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Tennessee State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia sits at +0.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Tennessee State on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Georgia is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tennessee State sits at +0.
2Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Georgia on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Gunner StocktonUGA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 202
- Completion %
- 93.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.6
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 261.7
Leading Rusher
Nate FrazierUGA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 72
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 18.0
- Rushing TD
- 3
- Long
- 48
Primary Receiver
Jeremy BellUGA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 54.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 54
Defensive Leader
Raylen WilsonUGA · LB
- Tackles
- 3
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UGA by 46.0
Baseline UGA -46.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
UGA QB
UGA Top 25 level · TNST Below average
TNST passing vs UGA coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 99.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.8 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 11.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.100 |
TNST rushing vs UGA run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 10.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 45.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.688 |
UGA passing vs TNST coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 388.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 75.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.614 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 660.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 109.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.