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360
Temple logo

Away · #83

Temple

1-1 · American Athletic · 0 pts

Week 3 · Scheduled

VS

Toledo logo

Home · #89

Toledo

1-1 · Mid-American · 0 pts

Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM MT Glass Bowl CBSSN

Vegas Line

No market line

No total published

Model Projection

TOL -8.0

TOL 77.4% win · O/U 48.4

Value Edge

No market line

No market total to compare

Model Rationale

Shifted by +5.1 pts toward TEM on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
TOL -9.1
  • TOL: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Mike Jacobs — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.5 pts.
Temple logo

Temple — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Toledo ranks #103 nationally allowing 247.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #94 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Connor Walendzak

    Toledo's top producer this season: 76 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Temple has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Temple converts 25.0% of third downs (#120 nationally) versus Toledo's 12.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Temple is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Toledo sits at -1.

  5. 5Move the ball efficiently

    Temple averages 369.0 total yards per game (#88 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.

Toledo logo

Toledo — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Temple ranks #72 nationally allowing 195.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #58 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Keveun Mason

    Temple's top producer this season: 158 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Toledo has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Toledo converts 12.5% of third downs (#131 nationally) versus Temple's 25.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Toledo is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Temple sits at +2.

  5. 5Move the ball efficiently

    Toledo averages 273.0 total yards per game (#122 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Ajani SheppardTEM · QB

Passing Yds
85
Completion %
50.0%
Yards / Attempt
8.5
TD : INT
0 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
—
Passer Rating
121.4

John Alan RichterTOL · QB

Passing Yds
196
Completion %
57.1%
Yards / Attempt
9.3
TD : INT
2 : 1
TD/INT Ratio
2.00:1
Passer Rating
157.4

Leading Rusher

Keveun MasonTEM · RB

Rushing Yds
158
Carries
20
Yards / Carry
7.9
Rushing TD
2
Long
38

Connor WalendzakTOL · RB

Rushing Yds
76
Carries
7
Yards / Carry
10.9
Rushing TD
1
Long
71

Primary Receiver

Colin ChaseTEM · WR

Receiving Yds
43
Receptions
3
Yards / Catch
14.3
Receiving TD
0
Long
21

Adjatay DabbsTOL · WR

Receiving Yds
101
Receptions
4
Yards / Catch
25.3
Receiving TD
2
Long
60

Defensive Leader

Curly OrdonezTEM · LB

Tackles
8
Solo
6
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Isaac ZayTOL · LB

Tackles
12
Solo
6
Sacks
1.0
TFL
1.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

TOL by 8.0

Baseline TOL -8.0

Simulated Total

48.4

Baseline 48.4

Unit Edge

TOL QB

TOL FBS average · TEM FBS average

Open the full simulator

TEM passing vs TOL coverage

142.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G247.0
56.3%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed7.3
8.9Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed76.5%
1.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate8.8%
0.306EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass0.338

TEM rushing vs TOL run defense

227.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G150.0
5.0Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed3.1
3.3Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate21.3%
11.1%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss5
0.233EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.157

TOL passing vs TEM coverage

195.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG196.0
6.3Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %57.1%
58.1%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt9.3
6.5%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio2.00:1
-0.103Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.501

Efficiency & situational

25.0%Third-down conversion12.5%
369.0Total yards / game273.0
292.0Yards allowed / game397.0
+2Turnover margin-1

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.