Week 1 · Final
20 – 13
Vegas Line
Bowling Green -1.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
BGSU -5.0
BGSU 68.3% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: BGSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- BGSU -7.7
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Tarleton State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Bowling Green ranks #127 nationally allowing 258.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #82 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Tarleton State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Bowling Green sits at -1.
3Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Tarleton State on the winning side of an even split.
Bowling Green — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Bowling Green is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tarleton State sits at +0.
2Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Bowling Green on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BGSU by 5.0
Baseline BGSU -5.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
BGSU QB
BGSU FBS average · TAR Below average
TAR passing vs BGSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 206.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.6 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 66.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.2% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.369 |
TAR rushing vs BGSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 258.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 7.8 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 25.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.017 |
BGSU passing vs TAR coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 262.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 80.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.565 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 46.2% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 366.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 464.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.