Week 2 · Final
17 – 41
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
BALL -7.5
BALL 75.5% win · O/U 53.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- BALL -3.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Stony Brook — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Ball State ranks #137 nationally allowing 434.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #123 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Stony Brook is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ball State sits at +0.
Ball State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Ball State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Stony Brook sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Ball State averages 165.0 total yards per game (#131 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BALL by 7.3
Baseline BALL -7.5
Simulated Total
53.4
Baseline 53.4
Unit Edge
BALL QB
BALL Below average · STBK Below average
STBK passing vs BALL coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 434.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 11.7 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 83.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.4% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.861 |
STBK rushing vs BALL run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 237.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 6.8 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.308 |
BALL passing vs STBK coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 120.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 54.1% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 3.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.265 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 21.4% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 165.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 671.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.