Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
DUKE -5.5
DUKE 70.0% win · O/U 44.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.7 pts toward STAN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- DUKE -3.7
- DUKE: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.8 pts.
- STAN: 0 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under Tavita Pritchard — 2021–2025 archive weighted 70%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Stanford — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Duke ranks #81 nationally allowing 204.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #29 run defense.
2Contain Nate Sheppard
Duke's top producer this season: 227 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Stanford has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Stanford converts 38.7% of third downs (#86 nationally) versus Duke's 44.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Stanford is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 2 recorded games; Duke sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Stanford averages 391.0 total yards per game (#80 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Duke — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Stanford ranks #128 nationally allowing 352.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #46 run defense.
2Contain Micah Ford
Stanford's top producer this season: 126 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Duke has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Duke converts 44.4% of third downs (#64 nationally) versus Stanford's 38.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Duke is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Stanford sits at +3.
5Move the ball efficiently
Duke averages 381.0 total yards per game (#83 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Davis WarrenSTAN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 524
- Completion %
- 57.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 120.4
Walker EgetDUKE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 131
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.0
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 92.3
Leading Rusher
Micah FordSTAN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 126
- Carries
- 36
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 3
- Long
- 28
Nate SheppardDUKE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 227
- Carries
- 35
- Yards / Carry
- 6.5
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 47
Primary Receiver
Benjamin BlackburnSTAN · TE
- Receiving Yds
- 101
- Receptions
- 12
- Yards / Catch
- 8.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 16
Jonah BurtonDUKE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 12.7
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
Matt RoseSTAN · LB
- Tackles
- 21
- Solo
- 10
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 0
Nick Morris Jr.DUKE · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
DUKE by 5.5
Baseline DUKE -5.5
Simulated Total
44.8
Baseline 44.8
Unit Edge
STAN QB
DUKE Below average · STAN FBS average
STAN passing vs DUKE coverage
| 265.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 204.0 |
| 57.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.8 |
| 7.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 56.7% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.0% |
| 0.324 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.113 |
STAN rushing vs DUKE run defense
| 125.5 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 54.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.1 |
| 2.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 13.0% |
| 15.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.203 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.240 |
DUKE passing vs STAN coverage
| 352.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 131.0 |
| 8.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 46.4% |
| 70.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.7 |
| 2.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.440 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.171 |
Efficiency & situational
| 38.7% | Third-down conversion | 44.4% |
| 391.0 | Total yards / game | 381.0 |
| 435.5 | Yards allowed / game | 258.0 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.