Week 2 · Final
24 – 58
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CSU -10.5
CSU 83.2% win · O/U 51.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- CSU -6.4
- CSU: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Jim Mora — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.8 pts.
Southern Utah — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Colorado State ranks #88 nationally allowing 143.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #42 pass defense.
2Contain Jayden Brown
Colorado State's top producer this season: 57 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Southern Utah has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Southern Utah is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Colorado State sits at +4.
Colorado State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Colorado State is +4 in turnover margin (4 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Southern Utah sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Colorado State averages 396.0 total yards per game (#73 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Hauss HejnyCSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 214
- Completion %
- 69.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.5
- TD : INT
- 5 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 174.2
Leading Rusher
Jayden BrownCSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 57
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 7.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 37
Primary Receiver
Reginald Vick JrCSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 75
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 12.5
- Receiving TD
- 3
- Long
- 57
Defensive Leader
Jaseim MitchellCSU · LB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CSU by 10.4
Baseline CSU -10.5
Simulated Total
51.8
Baseline 51.8
Unit Edge
CSU QB
CSU FBS average · SUU Below average
SUU passing vs CSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 130.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.8 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.109 |
SUU rushing vs CSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 143.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.1% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.083 |
CSU passing vs SUU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 242.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.6% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.1 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.537 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 46.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 273.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +4 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.