Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ILL -14.0
ILL 89.5% win · O/U 59.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ILL -9.9
- ILL: 2 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.2 pts.
Southern Illinois — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Illinois ranks #113 nationally allowing 194.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #89 pass defense.
2Contain Ca'Lil Valentine
Illinois's top producer this season: 88 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Southern Illinois has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Southern Illinois is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Illinois sits at +1.
Illinois — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Illinois is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Southern Illinois sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Illinois averages 332.0 total yards per game (#104 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Katin HouserILL · QB
- Passing Yds
- 182
- Completion %
- 76.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.7
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 224.6
Leading Rusher
Ca'Lil ValentineILL · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 88
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 8.0
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Primary Receiver
Collin DixonILL · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 70
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 11.7
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 18
Defensive Leader
Matthew BaileyILL · DB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ILL by 13.9
Baseline ILL -14.0
Simulated Total
59.9
Baseline 59.9
Unit Edge
ILL QB
ILL Above average · SIU Below average
SIU passing vs ILL coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 219.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.1 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 58.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.2% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.078 |
SIU rushing vs ILL run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 194.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 7.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.282 |
ILL passing vs SIU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 182.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.885 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 332.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 413.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.