Week 1 · Final
10 – 38
Vegas Line
Iowa State -29.5
Total 52.5
Model Projection
ISU -26.0
ISU 98.2% win · O/U 52.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: SEMO
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ISU -3.2
- ISU: 1 portal additions / 16 departures, first year under Jimmy Rogers — 2021–2025 archive weighted 16%, incoming portal talent −8.0 pts.
Southeast Missouri State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Iowa State ranks #48 nationally allowing 142.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #37 run defense.
2Contain Aiden Flora
Iowa State's top producer this season: 45 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Southeast Missouri State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Southeast Missouri State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Iowa State sits at +2.
4Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Southeast Missouri State on the winning side of an even split.
Iowa State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Iowa State is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Southeast Missouri State sits at +0.
2Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Iowa State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jaylen RaynorISU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 184
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.5
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 187.9
Leading Rusher
Aiden FloraISU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 45
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 6.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 17
Primary Receiver
Dominic OverbyISU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 85
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 42.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 45
Defensive Leader
Sullivan SchlimgenISU · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ISU by 26.0
Baseline ISU -26.0
Simulated Total
52.5
Baseline 52.5
Unit Edge
ISU QB
ISU FBS average · SEMO Below average
SEMO passing vs ISU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 142.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 77.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 27.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.025 |
SEMO rushing vs ISU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.5 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 14.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 12 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.092 |
ISU passing vs SEMO coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 195.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 52.9% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.324 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 303.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 209.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.