Week 2 · Final
28 – 24
Vegas Line
Army -3.5
Total 46.5
Model Projection
PK
ARMY 50.0% win · O/U 46.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: USF
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +14.6 pts toward USF on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ARMY -2.4
- USF: 2 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Brian Hartline — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
South Florida — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Army ranks #36 nationally allowing 67.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #19 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
South Florida converts 38.5% of third downs (#89 nationally) versus Army's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
South Florida is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Army sits at +0.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts South Florida on the winning side of an even split.
Army — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Florida ranks #116 nationally allowing 301.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #45 run defense.
2Contain Jason Collins Jr.
South Florida's top producer this season: 59 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Army has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Army converts 66.7% of third downs (#8 nationally) versus South Florida's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Army is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Florida sits at +3.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Army on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Michael Van Buren Jr.USF · QB
- Passing Yds
- 100
- Completion %
- 61.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.6
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.8
Leading Rusher
Jason Collins Jr.USF · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 59
- Carries
- 17
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Arhmad BranchUSF · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 9.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 14
Defensive Leader
Rodney HillUSF · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ARMY by 0.0
Baseline PK
Simulated Total
46.5
Baseline 46.5
Unit Edge
USF QB
ARMY Below average · USF FBS average
USF passing vs ARMY coverage
| 100.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 98.0 |
| 61.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.3 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 47.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.7% |
| 0.156 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.124 |
USF rushing vs ARMY run defense
| 108.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.2 |
| 2.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 24.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.099 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.068 |
ARMY passing vs USF coverage
| 301.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 79.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 53.8% |
| 62.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.1 |
| 2.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.214 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.086 |
Efficiency & situational
| 38.5% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 208.0 | Total yards / game | 648.0 |
| 381.0 | Yards allowed / game | 165.0 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.