Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
BOIS -16.5
BOIS 92.6% win · O/U 51
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- BOIS -12.4
- BOIS: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.5 pts.
South Dakota — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Boise State ranks #134 nationally allowing 378.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #72 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
South Dakota is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Boise State sits at +1.
Boise State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Boise State is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Dakota sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Boise State averages 274.0 total yards per game (#121 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BOIS by 16.4
Baseline BOIS -16.5
Simulated Total
51.0
Baseline 51
Unit Edge
BOIS QB
BOIS FBS average · SDAK Below average
SDAK passing vs BOIS coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 378.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 73.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.6% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.349 |
SDAK rushing vs BOIS run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.8 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.202 |
BOIS passing vs SDAK coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 181.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 51.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.291 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 26.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 274.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 497.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.