Week 2 · Final
24 – 28
Vegas Line
Tulane -9.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
TULN -6.0
TULN 71.6% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: USA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.3 pts toward TULN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- USA -1.4
- TULN: 1 portal additions / 3 departures, first year under Will Hall — 2021–2025 archive weighted 57%, incoming portal talent −1.3 pts.
South Alabama — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Tulane ranks #125 nationally allowing 250.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #43 pass defense.
2Contain Johnnie Daniels
Tulane's top producer this season: 31 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing South Alabama has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
South Alabama converts 41.2% of third downs (#79 nationally) versus Tulane's 21.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
South Alabama is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tulane sits at +0.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts South Alabama on the winning side of an even split.
Tulane — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Alabama ranks #69 nationally allowing 186.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #19 run defense.
2Contain PJ Martin
South Alabama's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tulane has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Tulane converts 21.4% of third downs (#123 nationally) versus South Alabama's 41.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Tulane is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Alabama sits at +2.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Tulane on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Bishop DavenportUSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 154
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.7
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 126.8
Kadin SemonzaTULN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 140
- Completion %
- 52.4%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.7
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 108.4
Leading Rusher
PJ MartinUSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 18
- Yards / Carry
- 3.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 12
Johnnie DanielsTULN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 31
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 7
Primary Receiver
Brendan JenkinsUSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 78
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 15.6
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 26
Destyn HillTULN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 13.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 39
Defensive Leader
Cole BlaylockUSA · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Kevin AdamsTULN · S
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TULN by 6.0
Baseline TULN -6.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
TULN QB
TULN FBS average · USA Below average
USA passing vs TULN coverage
| 154.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 131.0 |
| 66.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 5.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 46.4% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.196 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.171 |
USA rushing vs TULN run defense
| 241.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 250.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.1 |
| 3.1 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 18.4% |
| 14.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 0 |
| 0.163 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.106 |
TULN passing vs USA coverage
| 186.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 204.0 |
| 9.3 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 56.7% |
| 60.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.8 |
| 5.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.512 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.113 |
Efficiency & situational
| 41.2% | Third-down conversion | 21.4% |
| 395.0 | Total yards / game | 258.0 |
| 231.0 | Yards allowed / game | 381.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.