Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
PK
SMU 50.8% win · O/U 60.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.2 pts toward LOU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- SMU -2.9
- LOU: 7 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 62%, incoming portal talent +1.3 pts.
- SMU: 4 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
SMU — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Louisville ranks #125 nationally allowing 336.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #97 run defense.
2Contain Lincoln Kienholz
Louisville's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing SMU has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
SMU converts 57.1% of third downs (#28 nationally) versus Louisville's 43.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
SMU is -3 in turnover margin (1 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Louisville sits at +2.
5Move the ball efficiently
SMU averages 585.0 total yards per game (#17 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Louisville — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
SMU ranks #114 nationally allowing 199.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #40 pass defense.
2Contain Kendrick Raphael
SMU's top producer this season: 75 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Louisville has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Louisville converts 43.8% of third downs (#67 nationally) versus SMU's 57.1%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Louisville is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; SMU sits at -3.
5Move the ball efficiently
Louisville averages 469.0 total yards per game (#54 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kevin JenningsSMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 430
- Completion %
- 72.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.50:1
- Passer Rating
- 188.9
Lincoln KienholzLOU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 307
- Completion %
- 62.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.6
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 173.8
Leading Rusher
Kendrick RaphaelSMU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 75
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 6.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 23
Lincoln KienholzLOU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 4.9
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 41
Primary Receiver
Yannick SmithSMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 107
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 21.4
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 79
Tre RichardsonLOU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 83
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 20.8
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 62
Defensive Leader
Aakil WashingtonSMU · DE
- Tackles
- 1
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Koen EntringerLOU · DB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SMU by 0.2
Baseline PK
Simulated Total
60.3
Baseline 60.3
Unit Edge
SMU QB
LOU FBS average · SMU Above average
SMU passing vs LOU coverage
| 430.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 336.0 |
| 72.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.1 |
| 11.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 56.8% |
| 1.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.585 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.535 |
SMU rushing vs LOU run defense
| 155.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 152.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.7 |
| 3.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 14.3% |
| 12.9% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 1 |
| 0.128 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.127 |
LOU passing vs SMU coverage
| 125.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 307.0 |
| 5.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 62.1% |
| 52.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.6 |
| 13.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.246 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.470 |
Efficiency & situational
| 57.1% | Third-down conversion | 43.8% |
| 585.0 | Total yards / game | 469.0 |
| 324.0 | Yards allowed / game | 488.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.