Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ULM -7.5
ULM 75.7% win · O/U 50.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ULM -3.4
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
SE Louisiana — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UL Monroe ranks #138 nationally allowing 345.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #136 pass defense.
2Contain Austin Carlisle
UL Monroe's top producer this season: 50 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing SE Louisiana has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
SE Louisiana is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; UL Monroe sits at +0.
UL Monroe — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
UL Monroe is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; SE Louisiana sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
UL Monroe averages 278.0 total yards per game (#119 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Austin CarlisleULM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 73
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 154.3
Leading Rusher
Austin CarlisleULM · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 50
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 7.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 18
Primary Receiver
Derrick JamesonULM · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 40.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Defensive Leader
Noah FlemmingsULM · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ULM by 7.4
Baseline ULM -7.5
Simulated Total
50.8
Baseline 50.8
Unit Edge
ULM QB
ULM Below average · SELA Below average
SELA passing vs ULM coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 417.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.540 |
SELA rushing vs ULM run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 345.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 9.3 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 5.6% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 1 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.834 |
ULM passing vs SELA coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 140.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 57.1% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.0 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.095 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 18.8% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 278.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 762.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.