Week 1 · Final
14 – 39
Vegas Line
South Alabama -13.5
Total 53.5
Model Projection
USA -16.0
USA 92.4% win · O/U 53.5
Value Edge
2.7 pt edge: USA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- USA -12.2
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
SE Louisiana — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Alabama ranks #69 nationally allowing 186.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #19 run defense.
2Contain PJ Martin
South Alabama's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing SE Louisiana has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
SE Louisiana is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Alabama sits at +2.
4Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts SE Louisiana on the winning side of an even split.
South Alabama — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
South Alabama is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; SE Louisiana sits at +0.
2Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts South Alabama on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Bishop DavenportUSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 154
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.7
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 126.8
Leading Rusher
PJ MartinUSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 18
- Yards / Carry
- 3.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Brendan JenkinsUSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 78
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 15.6
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 26
Defensive Leader
Cole BlaylockUSA · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
USA by 16.2
Baseline USA -16.0
Simulated Total
53.5
Baseline 53.5
Unit Edge
USA QB
USA Below average · SELA Below average
SELA passing vs USA coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 186.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.3 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.512 |
SELA rushing vs USA run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 45.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.336 |
USA passing vs SELA coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 154.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.196 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 41.2% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 395.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 231.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.