Week 0 · Final
26 – 42
Vegas Line
USC -37.5
Total 61.5
Model Projection
USC -34.0
USC 99.5% win · O/U 61.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: SJSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +11.6 pts toward USC on the 2026 3-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 3 games · 75%
- Historical baseline
- 25%
- Baseline margin
- USC -5.1
- USC: 6 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 68%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
- SJSU: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
San José State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
USC ranks #55 nationally allowing 155.5 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #39 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
San José State converts 37.0% of third downs (#95 nationally) versus USC's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
San José State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; USC sits at -1.
4Clear 31 points
The market total for this game is 61.5. Anything above 31 points puts San José State on the winning side of an even split.
USC — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
San José State ranks #104 nationally allowing 257.5 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #83 run defense.
2Contain Jabari Bates
San José State's top producer this season: 156 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing USC has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
USC converts 66.7% of third downs (#12 nationally) versus San José State's 37.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
USC is -1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; San José State sits at +0.
5Clear 31 points
The market total for this game is 61.5. Anything above 31 points puts USC on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Luke WeaverSJSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 550
- Completion %
- 62.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.7
- TD : INT
- 5 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 5.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 147.5
Leading Rusher
Jabari BatesSJSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 156
- Carries
- 31
- Yards / Carry
- 5.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 13
Primary Receiver
Cooper HochSJSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 139
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 19.9
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
Naseri DanielsonSJSU · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 9
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
USC by 34.0
Baseline USC -34.0
Simulated Total
61.5
Baseline 61.5
Unit Edge
USC QB
USC Top 25 level · SJSU Below average
SJSU passing vs USC coverage
| 275.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 155.5 |
| 60.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.6 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.6% |
| 5.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 12.8% |
| 0.416 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.478 |
SJSU rushing vs USC run defense
| 119.5 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 70.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.7 |
| 2.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.3% |
| 24.1% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 12 |
| -0.106 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.314 |
USC passing vs SJSU coverage
| 257.5 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 376.5 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 88.1% |
| 68.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.2 |
| 2.5% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.237 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.907 |
Efficiency & situational
| 37.0% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 394.5 | Total yards / game | 528.5 |
| 393.0 | Yards allowed / game | 226.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.