Week 2 · Final
10 – 28
Vegas Line
UCLA -11.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
UCLA -11.5
UCLA 85.8% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
Model agrees with market
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.0 pts toward UCLA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- UCLA -1.7
- UCLA: 6 portal additions / 2 departures, first year under Bob Chesney — 2021–2025 archive weighted 45%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
San Diego State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
UCLA ranks #115 nationally allowing 291.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #74 run defense.
2Contain Anthony Woods
UCLA's top producer this season: 118 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing San Diego State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
San Diego State converts 50.0% of third downs (#51 nationally) versus UCLA's 54.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
San Diego State is +0 in turnover margin (3 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; UCLA sits at +2.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts San Diego State on the winning side of an even split.
UCLA — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
San Diego State ranks #113 nationally allowing 280.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #57 run defense.
2Contain Javion Kinnard
San Diego State's top producer this season: 79 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UCLA has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UCLA converts 54.5% of third downs (#37 nationally) versus San Diego State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
UCLA is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; San Diego State sits at +0.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts UCLA on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jayden DenegalSDSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 137
- Completion %
- 70.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.1
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 165.3
Nico IamaleavaUCLA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 184
- Completion %
- 63.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.4
- TD : INT
- 0 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 124.8
Leading Rusher
Javion KinnardSDSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 79
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 9.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 55
Anthony WoodsUCLA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 118
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 14.8
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 53
Primary Receiver
Justius LoweSDSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 28.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Mikey MatthewsUCLA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 88
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 22.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 43
Defensive Leader
Sione HalaSDSU · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Samuel OmosighoUCLA · LB
- Tackles
- 14
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UCLA by 11.7
Baseline UCLA -11.5
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
UCLA QB
UCLA FBS average · SDSU FBS average
SDSU passing vs UCLA coverage
| 157.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 291.0 |
| 66.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.2 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 55.3% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.3% |
| 0.682 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.305 |
SDSU rushing vs UCLA run defense
| 237.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.0 |
| 2.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 20.5% |
| 20.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.356 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.074 |
UCLA passing vs SDSU coverage
| 280.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 184.0 |
| 5.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.6% |
| 59.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 1.9% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.289 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.026 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 54.5% |
| 394.0 | Total yards / game | 461.0 |
| 375.0 | Yards allowed / game | 410.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.